NEW DELHI: Amid changing age profiles, declining fertility rates and economic progress, India is likely to see a significant shift in the migration scenario in the decades to come with the current net outflow of around 5 lakh people in 2018 getting reversed by 2050 with a net inbound migration of around two and a half lakh.
An analysis published in The Lancet on fertility, mortality, migration and population scenarios for 195 countries said those with the largest immigration forecasts in absolute numbers in 2100 would be the US, India and China.
The projections show that in 2018, the net migration in India was -5,08,000, which means that the outflow of people leaving was higher than those coming in. However, this trend is likely to reverse by 2050 when the estimated net migration count is projected to turn positive at 2,38,000. The net migration count is estimated to be even higher, at 5,20,000, in 2100. The analysis explains that net migration count accounts for all ages and sexes combined. Positive counts indicate net immigration while negative counts indicate net emigration.
These trends are part of a study that has been carried out by researchers from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington.
Highlighting the key findings, the authors said global population was projected to peak in 2064 at 9.7 billion and decline to 8.8 billion in 2100. The projection for India in 2100 was 1.1 billion. The global TFR in the reference scenario was forecast to be 1.6 in 2100. The findings also suggested a shifting age structure in many parts of the world, with 2.4 billion individuals older than 65 years and 1.7 billion individuals younger than 20 years forecast globally in 2100.